Models
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 10 brokers · 370 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-09.
Broker models frame Qifu around a sharp FY2026 reset: loan volume, on-book pricing and earnings all step down from a strong FY2025 as APR compression bites, before a gradual re-acceleration through FY2028. All figures are in the company's reporting currency (CNY); the differentiated lines here are the origination and loan-balance splits, take-rates and funding cost that the headline CapIQ consensus does not break out. Net income is modeled down roughly 40% in FY2026 and only clawing part of it back by FY2028.
Origination engine troughs in FY2026, then re-accelerates through FY2028
Total originations fall about a fifth in FY2026 before returning to mid-single-digit growth; the capital-light off-balance-sheet book leads the recovery while the credit-driven book stays roughly flat. Outstanding loan balance tracks the same trough-and-recover shape.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Originations | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Loan originations | CN¥320.55bn | CN¥256.95bn | CN¥267.48bn | CN¥286.66bn | -19.8% | 7 |
| Loan originations - Credit driven | CN¥168.91bn | CN¥131.23bn | CN¥133.51bn | CN¥134.97bn | -22.3% | 8 |
| Loan originations - Capital light (off-B/S) | CN¥151.64bn | CN¥125.08bn | CN¥131.33bn | CN¥148.40bn | -17.5% | 7 |
| Loan balance | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Outstanding loan balance | CN¥126.93bn | CN¥105.97bn | CN¥111.34bn | CN¥120.98bn | -16.5% | 8 |
| Loan balance - Credit driven | CN¥61.50bn | CN¥51.46bn | CN¥54.10bn | CN¥57.08bn | -16.3% | 8 |
| Loan balance - Capital light (off-B/S) | CN¥63.15bn | CN¥54.65bn | CN¥56.79bn | CN¥62.10bn | -13.5% | 7 |
Pricing compresses faster than funding cost, halving returns
The on-book APR the street models compresses across the whole forecast while funding cost eases far less, squeezing net spread. Return on average equity roughly halves off FY2025 and the efficiency ratio drifts higher.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APR - on B/S(%) | 24.9% | 19.3% | 18.4% | 16.7% | -5.7pt | 7 |
| Cost of funding(%) | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% | -0.8pt | 8 |
| Return on average equity(%) | 24.0% | 13.5% | 13.1% | 13.0% | -10.5pt | 7 |
| Efficiency ratio(%) | 32.3% | 37.3% | 38.5% | 39.3% | +4.9pt | 9 |
Platform (capital-light) revenue takes the deeper cut
In FY2026 platform-services revenue is modeled down far more than the credit-driven book, and referral fees roughly halve. Both stabilize thereafter, so the recovery is led by the heavier credit-driven line rather than the capital-light fees.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit driven services | CN¥13.49bn | CN¥10.96bn | CN¥10.14bn | CN¥10.48bn | -18.8% | 7 |
| Platform services | CN¥5.92bn | CN¥3.76bn | CN¥3.94bn | CN¥4.12bn | -36.5% | 7 |
| Referral services fees - Platform services | CN¥3.22bn | CN¥1.67bn | CN¥1.67bn | CN¥1.71bn | -48.2% | 8 |
| Total loan facilitation and servicing fees | CN¥3.08bn | CN¥1.79bn | CN¥2.20bn | CN¥2.53bn | -41.8% | 8 |
| Total revenue | CN¥19.46bn | CN¥14.91bn | CN¥14.20bn | CN¥14.40bn | -23.4% | 9 |
Brokers split most on take-rate fees, funding cost and terminal APR
The widest FY2027 dispersion sits on the economically decisive lines — total facilitation fees, cost of funding, credit provisions and on-book APR — not on the headline revenue everyone models tightly.
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total loan facilitation and servicing fees | FY-2027E | CN¥2.10bn | CN¥1.62bn–CN¥2.63bn | CN¥1.42bn–CN¥3.48bn | 8 |
| Cost of funding(%) | FY-2027E | 2.3% | 1.9%–2.6% | 1.5%–3.3% | 8 |
| Provision for loan losses | FY-2027E | CN¥4.46bn | CN¥3.45bn–CN¥4.79bn | CN¥3.02bn–CN¥5.62bn | 10 |
| APR - on B/S(%) | FY-2027E | 18.3% | 17.9%–19.6% | 13.5%–22.4% | 7 |
Dividend per ADS held near CNY 11 through the earnings trough
Models keep the dividend per ADS around CNY 11 (CNY 10.91 in FY2025, CNY 11.05 in FY2026, rising toward CNY 12.14 by FY2028) even as diluted EPADS drops from CNY 44.02 to CNY 27.70 — a payout defended straight through the reset, resting on only five to six brokers.
Differentiated KPI lines rest on a handful of brokers
Consensus is fresh (most lines revised into July 2026), but the differentiated APR, take-rate and dividend lines rest on only four to seven brokers versus nine to ten on headline earnings. A few KPIs (risk-bearing-balance rate, average tenor) sit on two to three models and are excluded — read the KPI detail as indicative, not firm consensus.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.