Estimates
Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-07-27.
Qfin's consensus has been cut hard — FY27–28 revenue and normalized EPS down 20–30% over six months — though the pace has flattened to roughly unchanged in the last month. The model shows a sharp 2026 reset, with revenue off about a quarter year-on-year, then a gradual climb back through 2028. Two straight revenue misses, including −13% in Q4 2025, broke an earlier run of beats, yet 11 of 13 analysts stay positive. Figures are in Chinese renminbi; outer-year and EBITDA coverage is thin.
Estimate momentum
The heavy revisions landed months ago; over the last 30 days both lines are essentially unchanged, and FY28 EPS has even ticked up versus 90 days ago.
Currency: CNY · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Point-in-time consensus; Δ90d is Now versus 90d.
| Metric | FY | 180d | 90d | 30d | Now | Δ90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027 | CNY 43.31 | CNY 34.67 | CNY 32.94 | CNY 31.89 | -8.0% |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028 | — | CNY 36.00 | CNY 37.04 | CNY 37.04 | +2.9% |
| Revenue | FY2027 | CNY 18.45bn | CNY 15.28bn | CNY 14.75bn | CNY 14.41bn | -5.7% |
| Revenue | FY2028 | CNY 21.71bn | CNY 14.80bn | CNY 14.98bn | CNY 14.95bn | +1.0% |
Beat / miss record
Current sequences by metric: Revenue: 2 consecutive misses.
Currency: CNY · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Consensus is captured before each actual first became effective.
| Quarter | Metric | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 | Revenue | CNY 4.01bn | CNY 3.91bn | -2.6% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2025 | Revenue | CNY 4.73bn | CNY 4.09bn | -13.4% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2025 | Revenue | CNY 4.98bn | CNY 5.21bn | +4.6% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | Revenue | CNY 4.68bn | CNY 5.22bn | +11.5% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2025 | Revenue | CNY 4.61bn | CNY 4.69bn | +1.8% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2024 | Revenue | CNY 4.14bn | CNY 4.16bn | +0.5% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2023 | Revenue | CNY 4.26bn | CNY 4.50bn | +5.6% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2023 | Revenue | CNY 4.17bn | CNY 4.28bn | +2.8% | Beat |
Forward estimates
Currency: CNY · Scale: money in millions, absolute · YoY uses the prior fiscal year from the feed; analyst count and range use the first displayed period.
| Metric | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | YoY | Analysts | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | CNY 19.31bn | CNY 14.49bn | CNY 14.41bn | CNY 14.95bn | — | 11 | CNY 17.14bn / CNY 19.84bn |
| EPS (normalized) | CNY 46.31 | CNY 29.38 | CNY 31.89 | CNY 37.04 | — | 6 | CNY 44.26 / CNY 48.54 |
| Net income (normalized) | CNY 6.29bn | CNY 3.63bn | CNY 4.03bn | CNY 4.50bn | — | — | — |
Street snapshot
No sell or underperform ratings, and a mean target of ¥148 against a ¥98–204 range — roughly a 2x spread that signals unresolved debate on the recovery.
Currency: CNY · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Analyst counts shown explicitly.
| Street view | Reading | Analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Recommendation mix | Buy 7, Outperform 4, Hold 2, Underperform 0, Sell 0 | 13 |
| Consensus score | 1.62 | 13 |
| Target price | mean CNY 148.1; median CNY 152.5; high CNY 204.1; low CNY 98.30 | 13 |
Analysts split widely on the recovery — FY27 revenue spans ¥11.7bn to ¥16.7bn
The spread widens further into FY28, where both normalized EPS and GAAP net income carry large ranges on single-digit analyst counts.
Currency: CNY · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Spread/mean is absolute high-low divided by absolute mean.
| Metric | Period | Mean | Low–high | Spread/mean | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | FY2027E | CNY 14.41bn | CNY 11.75bn–CNY 16.68bn | 34.3% | 10 |
| Net income (GAAP) | FY2028E | CNY 4.15bn | CNY 3.55bn–CNY 4.99bn | 34.9% | 8 |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028E | CNY 37.04 | CNY 29.22–CNY 40.65 | 30.9% | 5 |
Coverage thins in the outer years and on EBITDA
EBITDA is estimated by as few as two to four analysts across 2026–2028, and normalized EPS by only five to six; treat outer-year points and any EBITDA read as low-consensus.